Back or sack?
There is this theory that that if you get your Kickstarter project 30% funded, you’ll probably make it to 100% funding. The idea is that you reach a tipping point where people will start talking about your project once they see it’s had some success. And from that you get more people to throw in their pledge dollars, and it does the positive feedback loop thing.
I’m suspicious of the theory, though. It hinges on the idea that people are more likely to pledge if they see other pledges. On Kickstarter, as a pledger, YOU PAY NOTHING if the project fails to reach 100% funding. Nothing$. The potential funding success of the project shouldn’t be a factor in deciding. The penalty for “wasting” your efforts on a failed project is maybe two minutes of time going through the forms and the bummer of being associated with failure. (“Oh, my reputation as a savvy Kickstarter investor is ruined!”)
What might be happening instead: The projects that got to 30% did things or had other conditions which allowed them to reach a certain level of success. And those same things that were already in play continued to push the project to 100% funding. In other words, I’m just putting out Ye Olde “correlation is not causality” message.
But I’m not an expert, and I would still like to get to 30% with Machine Court to see what happens next. Hanging out at 9% now thanks to some awesome people.